WNBA trade grades: Did Sun or Mercury do better in Alyssa Thomas trade?

The 2025 WNBA offseason has been marked by star movement. Three former All-WNBA picks have already changed teams via trade this offseason, with more potentially to come as things continue to heat up.

The Las Vegas Aces, Los Angeles Sparks and Seattle Storm kicked things off Sunday with a reported three-team trade sending Jewell Loyd to the Aces, Kelsey Plum to the Sparks via sign-and-trade and a package of draft picks headlined by the No. 2 pick in the upcoming WNBA draft to the Storm.

On Tuesday, the Phoenix Mercury made a blockbuster deal to land Alyssa Thomas from the Connecticut Sun two seasons after she finished as the runner-up in MVP voting. In return for Thomas and starting guard Tyasha Harris, Phoenix sent veterans Rebecca Allen and Natasha Cloud to Connecticut along with the No. 12 pick in this year's draft.

Which teams got the better of these deals and how do the moves affect the rest of the WNBA and what else we'll see in free agency? ESPN breaks down all the implications.

Sun trade Alyssa Thomas to Mercury

Connecticut gets: Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen, No. 12 pick in 2025 draft
Phoenix gets: Alyssa Thomas, Tyasha Harris

Phoenix Mercury: A

The 2025 Mercury are going to look much different from what we've seen in the Valley.

We've seen Phoenix add stars in the past five years, but to complement cornerstone veterans Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi. In 2020, that was Skylar Diggins-Smith, who helped the Mercury reach the Finals in 2021 before her relationship with the team deteriorated. Last year, it was Kahleah Copper, who got Phoenix back to the playoffs after a 9-31 finish in 2023 but not back to .500.

Adding Thomas is different. If Griner (who is taking meetings as an unrestricted free agent for the first time) or Taurasi (whose return for a 21st WNBA season is uncertain) remain on the Mercury, they'll be tasked to fit in around Thomas rather than the opposite.

At surface level, Thomas is an unlikely star for Phoenix coach Nate Tibbetts' offense, which is predicated on floor spacing. During Tibbetts' first season, the Mercury went from attempting 32% of their shots from 3-point range in 2023 to 39%, third highest in the league.

Thomas hasn't made a 3-pointer since her rookie season and is 2-for-21 beyond the arc in her WNBA career. But Thomas is near the top of the league when it comes to generating 3-pointers for her teammates. Thomas ranked second in 3s from her passes in 2024, behind only Cloud.

Given that Phoenix GM Nick U'Ren came from the Golden State Warriors, the inevitable comparison for how Thomas could play with the Mercury is prime Draymond Green. Like most versatile posts, Thomas has preferred to play alongside a traditional big, spending most of her Connecticut career first next to Jonquel Jones and then Brionna Jones (and occasionally both).

Lineups with Thomas at center and maximum shooting around her -- a la the Warriors' so-called "Death Lineup" that U'Ren famously suggested to head coach Steve Kerr during the 2015 NBA Finals en route to Golden State's first title -- figure to maximize her impact.

We saw that in 2023, when Brionna Jones sustained an Achilles rupture with the Sun off to a 10-3 start, forcing Thomas to play more in the middle. Connecticut went 17-10 the rest of the way without an All-Star post, and Thomas finished second in MVP voting after averaging 15.8 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.9 assists over the final 27 games.

Defensively, the Death Lineup comp also works. The Mercury switched the second-most on-ball screens in the WNBA last season, per Second Spectrum tracking data, but were limited in that regard by Griner's need to stay anchored near the paint. According to Second Spectrum, Phoenix switched just 7% of picks when Griner defended the screen setter, compared to 23% overall. Lineups with Thomas at center could allow the Mercury to switch as a base defense.

Who else fills out that lineup remains to be seen. Getting Harris back was key to making this trade work financially for Phoenix, which doesn't have any players remaining on rookie contracts. (The Mercury, who were in win-now mode throughout Taurasi's later career, last made and kept a first-round pick in 2019.) At $100,000 in the final season of her contract, Harris won't make appreciably more than the No. 12 pick, and is a proven starting point guard.

The Mercury are still in pursuit of one of the top other remaining uncommitted free agents, Satou Sabally of the Dallas Wings. Like Thomas, Sabally was her team's core player, meaning Phoenix would have to strike a deal with Dallas if Sabally chooses the Mercury.

With the salaries of Allen and Cloud no longer on the books, Phoenix has enough cap room to give both Sabally and Thomas the supermax and still sign DeWanna Bonner (Thomas' fiancée who started her career with the Mercury) to a max offer as an unrestricted free agent.

Until Phoenix fills out the roster, it's tough to say how seriously we should take the Mercury as title contenders. But adding Thomas puts Phoenix back in that conversation for the first time since reaching the 2021 WNBA Finals.

Connecticut Sun: B-

The 2025 Sun are going to look much different from what we've seen before. Coaches and teammates have come and gone, with Thomas as the constant as the Sun won at least 60% of their games in all but one season since 2017. (And that one below-.500 season, 2020, saw Thomas drag Connecticut to the semifinals.)

The Sun have done a remarkable job of remaking the roster around Thomas, including shaking off the trade sending former MVP Jonquel Jones to the New York Liberty. But losing Thomas and coach Stephanie White, with both Bonner and Brionna Jones unrestricted free agents, heralds the start of a new era in Connecticut.

In particular, Thomas' departure suggests facilities issues might finally be catching up with the Sun. It's probably no coincidence that Thomas wanted out not long after lamenting Connecticut sharing the team's practice court with a child's birthday party during the playoffs. Like Las Vegas and Seattle, Phoenix has invested in a dedicated practice facility for the Mercury, upping the ante ahead of a 2026 offseason, when virtually every veteran player of note can be a free agent.

The timing of Thomas' departure isn't ideal for the Sun, who gave up swap rights on their 2026 first-round pick in the deal to add Marina Mabrey from the Chicago Sky last summer. Incidentally, Chicago can swap a first-round pick from Phoenix -- acquired in the Copper trade -- with Connecticut's pick, meaning the Sun might not benefit if they fall into the lottery.

With that in mind, the Sun will surely try to compete in 2025. Allen, Cloud and Mabrey give them three capable starters, and Connecticut also has the rights to restricted free agent DiJonai Carrington. Although Brionna Jones is fully unrestricted after playing two years on the core designation, the Sun can offer her more than any team to re-sign via the supermax.

Getting a first-round pick from the Mercury helps Connecticut replace the team's own first-rounder, which also went to the Sky in the Mabrey deal. Pending the remainder of free agency, this is a solid package that should allow the Sun to remain competitive. Still, without Thomas as the anchor, the odds are against Connecticut continuing its semifinal streak.

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Kelsey Plum's top moments from past season

Check out some of Kelsey Plum's top moments from her last season with the Aces as she has been traded to the Sparks.

Jan. 26: How the Kelsey Plum-Jewell Loyd blockbuster shakes up three teams -- and possibly the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes

Aces get: Jewell Loyd, No. 13 pick in 2025 draft
Sparks get: Kelsey Plum, No. 9 pick in 2025 draft, 2026 second-round pick
Storm get: Li Yueru, No. 2 pick in 2025 draft, 2026 first-round pick

Who won Sunday's blockbuster WNBA trade involving All-Stars Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Plum, plus the No. 2 pick of the upcoming draft?

As reported by ESPN, the three-team trade fulfills Loyd's trade request by sending her to the Las Vegas Aces to replace Plum, who will join the Los Angeles Sparks via sign-and-trade after the Aces used their core designation to take her out of free agency. Meanwhile, the Storm move up from No. 9 to No. 2 in April's draft -- which could facilitate an offer to land the No. 1 pick from the Dallas Wings if top prospect Paige Bueckers of the UConn Huskies prefers not to play in Dallas.

Las Vegas Aces: B+

If Plum wanted out, Loyd was almost certainly the best replacement the Aces could get. There's great familiarity on both sides. Loyd has teamed with Chelsea Gray, A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young for USA Basketball, winning gold last summer, and she has played more playoff games against Las Vegas than any other opponent -- averaging 16.7 points in those games, better than Loyd's overall playoff average of 15.7 points.

Loyd also shares an agent, Jade-Li English, with her new teammates Gray, Wilson and Young. After the ugly breakup between Loyd and the Storm, which culminated in a trade request last month, those ties can help Las Vegas feel confident Loyd will stay with the Aces beyond the one season remaining on her contract.

From a basketball standpoint, Loyd comes to Las Vegas knowing she won't be the first option on offense. Loyd's spot in the pecking order in Seattle after the additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike was less clear. Although Loyd remained the Storm's leader in usage rate (29%), Ogwumike was Seattle's best player, earning All-WNBA second-team honors as Loyd was shut out.

Part of the issue was Loyd's adjustment in shot selection after having a bigger offensive role in 2023, when Seattle had just one other double-figure scorer (Ezi Magbegor) and she set a single-season record for points that Wilson broke last year. Loyd's usage rate went down playing alongside Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike, but she took too many off-balance jumpers early in the shot clock.

Per Second Spectrum tracking, Loyd's 39.8% quantified shot quality -- the effective field goal percentage we'd expect from an average player on the same shots based on location, type and distance to nearby defenders -- was the lowest among all players with at least 50 attempts. Plum's quantified shot quality, by contrast, was 47.5%.

We don't have Second Spectrum data for Loyd's time playing alongside Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart, who teamed up to win WNBA championships in 2018 and 2020, but Loyd's efficiency was far better. Loyd shot 38% from 3-point range and had a .541 true shooting percentage from 2017 to 2022, as compared with 27% on 3s and a .497 true shooting percentage in 2024.

By teaming up with another MVP, plus two other Olympians, Loyd is choosing a role similar to the bulk of her Storm career. From 2018 to 2022, Loyd's usage rate was 26% of Seattle's plays, in the same ballpark as Plum's 25% usage last season.

Adding Loyd's supermax salary ($249,032) will make it more challenging for the Aces to build their roster. Including Plum, Las Vegas' stars had repeatedly taken below-market extensions, meaning Wilson was previously the Aces' highest-paid player for 2025 at $200,000, according to salary data from HerHoopStats.com.

Even with the flexibility of non-guaranteed contracts for centers Megan Gustafson and Kiah Stokes, Las Vegas will probably have to choose between adding one more player at max-type money or splitting that salary among multiple veterans. The latter scenario could include bringing back key contributors Alysha Clark and Tiffany Hayes, both unrestricted free agents.

Flipping a 2026 first-round pick that has a decent chance of being lower in a 15-team league than the second-round pick they're getting back this year (No. 13 overall) helps the Aces financially because that player will be on a modest rookie contract. Effectively, Las Vegas replaced the team's 2025 first-round pick that the WNBA rescinded due to impermissible benefits.

Of course, we've also seen the Aces get discounts before by virtue of free agents' desire to play for a championship contender in a first-class facility. If Las Vegas can find a way to add Loyd and a top free agent without sacrificing depth, this grade will bump up to an A.

Los Angeles Sparks: B-

Adding Plum is a fascinating move for the Sparks that signals their intent to snap a four-year playoff drought by accelerating their rebuild with an upgrade to their backcourt.

We can probably trace the decision to expedite the rebuild to the trade Los Angeles made on the eve of 2024 free agency, acquiring the No. 4 pick (used on Rickea Jackson) from the Storm along with Kia Nurse in exchange for the Sparks' 2026 first-round pick. Without that pick, Los Angeles wouldn't benefit from another season in the lottery.

Giving up the No. 2 pick in this deal is painful for the Sparks, who have gone from dreaming of adding Bueckers to their young talent by winning the lottery to having only the No. 9 pick in this year's first two rounds. Still, given the difficulty of attracting top talent without a dedicated practice facility, I can understand why they wanted to take advantage of Plum's interest.

Despite going 8-32 in 2024, Los Angeles already has plenty of frontcourt pieces. Dearica Hamby is coming off an All-Star season during which she finished second in most improved player voting, while Jackson was chosen for the All-Rookie team and No. 2 pick Cameron Brink was on track to doing so before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in June. Veteran Azura Stevens is a fourth capable frontcourt starter.

The Sparks' backcourt was their undoing. Besides those four players, eight of the other 10 Los Angeles regulars -- all but Rae Burrell and restricted free agent Aari McDonald -- rated worse than replacement level by my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric. Los Angeles hasn't had an All-Star guard since Gray left for the Aces as an unrestricted free agent before the 2021 season.

Enter Plum, who will likely be the best guard to change teams this offseason. An All-Star each of the past three seasons, she peaked as an All-WNBA first-team pick in 2022, when Las Vegas won the first of its back-to-back titles. Presuming the Sparks re-sign Plum after this season, they'll have a window to win while she's still playing at an All-Star level and their 2024 first-round picks are approaching their prime years.

To help Plum, Los Angeles should continue upgrading the backcourt. Plum didn't miss Gray alongside her in the backcourt despite Plum's shooting slump to start 2024, but her shot quality improved after Gray's return from a foot injury. Before Gray's first start on June 21, Plum's quantified shot quality was 45%, according to Second Spectrum's metric, putting her in the 33rd percentile leaguewide. The rest of the season, that improved to a league-average 49%.

It's possible Julie Allemand could be the playmaker the Sparks need. The Belgian point guard was set to join Los Angeles after a February trade but was sidelined because of an ankle injury that required surgery. Allemand averaged 5.8 assists in her only full WNBA campaign as a starter for the Indiana Fever in 2020. Back healthy after missing the Olympics, Allemand is averaging 7.3 points and a team-high 6.1 assists in EuroLeague play this season for Fenerbahce.

Alternatively, Los Angeles could still add another max player to Plum in free agency. Courtney Vandersloot would be a logical target.

Blockbuster WNBA deal: The Seattle Storm are trading six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd to the Las Vegas Aces in a multi-team move that sends three-time All-Star Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks, sources tell me, @ramonashelburne, @alexaphilippou, @kendra__andrews. pic.twitter.com/OlRb37RKIA

Seattle Storm: A-

Trading Loyd for a package built around draft picks probably wasn't Plan A for the Storm, who are expected to re-sign Ogwumike and cored player Gabby Williams to go with Diggins-Smith and Ezi Magbegor as a veteran group hoping to contend.

Swapping Loyd for Plum would have been convenient for Seattle, but Plum evidently wasn't as interested in returning to the state where she starred at the University of Washington as going back to her native Southern California. The Storm could still trade the No. 2 pick to another team for veteran help -- for example, a package built around Ariel Atkins from the rebuilding Washington Mystics -- but I think getting that high in the draft changes the equation.

Landing the No. 2 pick suddenly puts Seattle in position to make a run at the No. 1 pick if Bueckers tells the Wings she'd rather return for a sixth year of college eligibility than come to Dallas. Given their year-old practice facility, strong fan support and history with UConn point guards, the Storm would be an attractive landing spot for Bueckers.

Seattle could offer the Wings the No. 2 pick and additional first-rounders -- including the Sparks' 2026 first-rounder, which has upside if Los Angeles misses the playoffs because the WNBA lottery standings reflect the record over the past two seasons combined.

The Storm now have a league-high five first-round picks over the next three years to offer for No. 1. (The Chicago Sky, who pick third, also hold five first-round picks.)

If Bueckers goes No. 1 to Dallas, or another team, Seattle would have its pick of Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard Olivia Miles, USC Trojans post Kiki Iriafen and French center Dominique Malonga. None fills an immediate need for the Storm -- it's unclear whether any would start as rookies -- but each has the long-term potential to be part of a young core, including Magbegor (25) and Jordan Horston (23) and the pair of 2026 first-rounders.

Replacing Loyd's supermax salary with the No. 2 pick, set to make $78,331, gives Seattle more cap flexibility. Even if Williams also takes the supermax offer guaranteed by the core designation and Ogwumike signs for the max, the Storm could make another near-max offer to a free agent.

There's no obvious replacement for Loyd in unrestricted free agency, but Seattle has the flexibility to add a bigger wing such as Clark or Aerial Powers or could try to add another ball handler, with Vandersloot and Natisha Hiedeman as realistic options.

As for Li, she's an interesting fit on a Storm team with the lithe Magbegor at center. Unrestricted free agent Mercedes Russell, who's unlikely to return given her friendship with Loyd, matched up against post-up centers the past couple of seasons. Now that role could fall to the 6-foot-7 Li, who received extended minutes last season against the Connecticut Sun (Brionna Jones), Dallas Wings (Teaira McCowan) and Phoenix Mercury (Brittney Griner).

Perhaps best for Seattle, Li is a reserved free agent who is likely to play next season for the league minimum of $66,079. That's important for a Storm team that will be trying to stretch every dollar filling out its bench.

Barring a trade for Bueckers or a veteran shooting guard, Seattle probably won't have as strong a roster in 2025 as last season, when the Storm looked like contenders entering the season. But Seattle is in position to win now while also building through the draft for the first time since taking Loyd and Stewart with the No. 1 pick in 2015 and 2016, respectively.