Facts vs. Feelings: Five players to trust in your Week 17 lineups

Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.

I'm writing this week's column on Christmas Eve, feeling as though I should incorporate a Yuletide theme. The fact is, however, you're probably going to read this after Dec. 25, in which case I hope your holiday was merry and bright. Whether Santa slid down your chimney, the glow of Hanukkah is lighting up your evenings or the bemusement of Festivus tickled your counterculture soul, may the ritual of your choosing have brought you a comfortable sufficiency of your favorite things and people.

If it hasn't... well, then notes for next year.

Because we're already thinking about next year, aren't we? These final few days of 2024 are guaranteed to be stuffed with spin-it-forward takes and headlines selling us the hottest new resolutions for 2025. Many of us will pen mental manifestos about counting macros (because cutting carbs faded away with the flip phone and trucker hats) and prioritizing probiotics. Others will make public proclamations regarding intentional self-care while committing to grabbing those long overdue drinks with that friend who lives across town.

It's all just wheel-spinning, really. Not that creating healthful change is frivolous. Or that I would ever doubt the authenticity of anyone's personal promises. Not at all. Rather, this specific space of time exists in such a liminal way that we can't help but feel disoriented. I don't want to dodder around in a fugue-like state but straddling the end of one year while not beginning the next invites a discomforting amount of confusion.

Making robust resolutions and organizing tool sheds offers us agency. Sitting still is tough. Distractions often provide us with deep delight. I'm not advocating for either, though I am planning to give "staying present" a valiant try. The concept is not novel. I've hinted at it throughout the season. Aiming to live in the now when the now is muddy, however, requires an accented amount of discipline. And who wants to talk about discipline on Dec. 27?

Instead, why don't we just allow events to unfold? Maybe change things up when new data is discovered or different feelings bubble to the surface. Even if the calendar and the coordinating fantasy football season don't imply an expanse of hours or minutes with which to cull updated information, who cares? We still have one more week, maybe two. And besides, if we can't control our circumstances, let's at least focus on how we react to them.

So, don't let the purgatory of this period mess with you. Ponder what it is you really want and then do that thing, taking full responsibility for any potential consequences. Trust your gut in late December as much as you did in early October and as much as you will in mid-January. Purge your garage with as much enthusiasm as a De'Von Achane stan starting him at Cleveland. Or languish in cozies on the sofa with satisfaction similar to that of Bijan Robinson managers coming off of a third multi-TD effort.

The stakes might be high, and the time might be muted, but you remain the captain of your destiny in fantasy ... and life. Now, get out there and enjoy all of it.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Few players have seized an unexpected moment with as much vigor as Purdy. From being under center at the Super Bowl to being unceremoniously eliminated from the postseason 10 months later, the 49ers QB has moved through an impressive number of obstacles. And yet, he has battled through all of the disappointment and continued to produce.

Purdy is fantasy's QB12 in points per game, averaging nearly 17. That's down just 1.5 points from his 2023 average. Not bad given the number of offensive stars who made early exits from San Fran's season. Moreover, Purdy has posted 20 or more fantasy points in four of his past seven games. There were two single-digit outliers (most notably the snow game versus Buffalo) during that span and he tossed an ugly INT at Miami in Week 16, but his performances have been of starting caliber more times than not.

Part of Purdy's appeal sneakily exists in his legs. The 24-year-old is QB8 in rushing fantasy points behind Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Bo Nix. More specifically, Purdy is in the second tier of mobile QBs, averaging 3.9 fantasy points per game from rushing alone. That sets up nicely versus Detroit, as the Lions' defense has given up the third-most rushing yards per game (28.3) to opposing QBs.

Speaking of the Lions' defense, it is banged up, to say the least. As the injuries have mounted, so has the opposing offenses' production; all three signal-callers who have reached 22 fantasy points against the Lions this season have done so over the team's most recent four games. The unit allowed seven passing scores from Weeks 1 to 12. That number jumped to eight over the past four games. With Purdy playing for pride in what is expected to be a relatively close (+3.5) and high-scoring affair (51.5), Mr. Irrelevant is in a position to make fantasy squads anything but.

Alexander Mattison, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders' backfield has been giving EOY energy since Josh Jacobs left town. Make no mistake: The team cast Mattison in an understudy role, but with Zamir White (quadriceps) and Sincere McCormick (ankle) both on the IR, the former Viking figures to receive top billing over the next two weeks. Even with Ameer Abdullah stumbling into a resurgence, Mattison found the spotlight in the passing game, converting four of seven looks in Week 16.

The 26-year-old has handled lead back duties on five occasions this season, registering at least 16 touches and averaging 19.5 opportunities over the collection of games. His output in those efforts has been of the RB2 variety, as he has managed a solid 13.6 fantasy points per contest. He figures to post similar stats in a plus matchup at New Orleans. The Saints have allowed 17 rushing TDs to RBs, including a whopping three (to three different Packers running backs) Monday night. Mattison might not have been on early-season bingo cards but could be a perfectly timed Band-Aid for facile managers seeking positional depth.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders: Talk about delayed gratification! The unlocking of Scary Terry has been a journey six years in the making. No matter the stumbling blocks or setbacks, McLaurin efforted toward ascent. That dedication exists not only on a macro level, but also from a micro POV. The chemistry between McLaurin and QB Jayden Daniels didn't happen overnight. At no point, however, did the duo stop massaging it into existence. Take, for example, their splits facing Philadelphia. McLaurin converted just one of two balls for 10 yards in Week 11. That number improved to a 5-60-1 stat line (worth 17 fantasy points) in Week 16.

The evolution has been equal parts constant and consistent. Currently the virtual game's WR5 overall, McLaurin has posted 15 or more fantasy points in nine of his past 10 outings and in 11 total contests over the course of 2024. For context, that total of 11 games ranks second in the NFL among non-QBs. Only Justin Jefferson has more (12), while Ja'Marr Chase and Jahmyr Gibbs have the same number.

The climb figures to continue in a game with major postseason implications Sunday night. Washington will host a Falcons squad miraculously still in the hunt for the NFC South crown. With both offenses firing on all cylinders and Atlanta's defense allowing the highest completion percentage in the NFL (69.8%), McLaurin should put forth a commanding display. Also working in the wideout's favor is the fact that the Falcons have allowed a league-high (tied with the Texans) 20 receiving scores to wide receivers. That has to make McLaurin managers feel pretty good about their chances of victory in Week 17.

Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts: No better way to close out the year than with a little YOLO. Pierce has brought the boom -- and the bust -- throughout 2024. Assuming he clears the league's concussion protocol (from a head injury suffered in Week 15), the explosive wideout figures to deliver more of the former, especially facing an ultra-generous Giants secondary.

Ranking first at the position in deep targets (29), Pierce is averaging an astounding 22.2 yards per reception (WR2). He's listed second among Colts pass catchers in routes run (353) and receiving yards registered (645) while leading the corps in air yards per target (21.41) and receiving scores hauled in (tied with Josh Downs at five).

Pierce's downfield ability figures to be exploited given the matchup. New York's defense has given up an absurd 62% completion rate on deep passes, which is by far the worst in the NFL and registers a full five points behind of the down-and-out Jaguars (57%). Three of the six receivers who, like Pierce (21.5 yards, WR1), rank inside the top 20 in average depth of target have logged season-high fantasy point totals when facing the G-Men: Calvin Austin III (20.4 FPTS, which included a kick return), Amari Cooper (27.6 FPTS), and Rashod Bateman (23.0 FPTS). The timing for Pierce and his managers could not be better.

Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans: I am but a humble fantasy analyst standing before you ... and asking you to once again consider the underutilized talents of the pass catcher with the Titans' second-most targets. To be fair, it appears as though Mason Rudolph and I share an affinity for the tight end's receiving potential. Okonkwo, who has drawn double-digit looks in back-to-back efforts, has logged a healthy target share of 19% with Rudolph under center as opposed to 11% with Will Levis at the helm. Coincidentally, the Maryland product has also experienced an increase in snap share, up from 54% in Weeks 1-8 to 70% from Week 9 to now.

While Rudolph has not been perfect, he has provided the offense with an undeniable spark. So much so that the Titans are favored (-1) at Jacksonville in Week 17. Of course, much of that has to do with the state of the Jaguars' (briefly aforementioned) defense. Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, including 20.9 to Brock Bowers on Sunday. Chig might not be Brock, but his Week 16 effort (19.1) ranked second at the position, behind only the Raiders rookie. Okonkwo has a solid shot to flirt with those numbers again this go-around, reminding managers that late is better than never.

Yes, I just gave you two entire paragraphs of Mason Rudolph-adjacent analysis without a single on-the-nose reference. Happy New Year.

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