Ewers vs. Manning: How close is a Texas quarterback controversy?

The four most notable individuals in Texas at any given moment are:

• The Dallas Cowboys starting quarterback

• Jerry Jones

• The Texas Longhorns starting quarterback

• The governor.

With all due respect to Gov. Greg Abbott, most of us need a brief break from talking about politics these days. And given that opinions on all things Cowboys are firmly in the “everything sucks” camp, that leaves the signal-caller at Texas as the focus of the state’s white-hot spotlight right now.

Quinn Ewers has spent years now on center stage, but his understudy is edging his way out of the wings … and the audience sees it. How long before the calls for Arch Manning get too loud for Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian to ignore? Is Ewers’ standing a microcosm of Texas as a whole — highly touted in the preseason, exposed as less-than-magnificent once the games started?

Let’s start with the facts. Texas is 9-1, in pole position for an SEC regular-season title, a conference championship berth and a CFP first-round bye. That, in itself, is reason enough for Sark to keep on dancing with the date that brought him to this point.

However, it’s also a fact that Ewers hasn’t produced the kind of season expected from him. Prior to Week 0, BetMGM had Ewers at +1000 for the Heisman, third-best behind Dillon Gabriel and Carson Beck. He’s now at +25000, and it’s pretty safe to say Ewers bettors aren’t going to cash that ticket.

Ewers has also seen his NFL draft stock plummet; early 2025 mock drafts have him falling out of the first round. “Solid overall package but has never really achieved a spectacular level, nor shown that he can consistently create,” Yahoo’s Charles Robinson declared last week. “There’s concern over his consistency in dealing with injuries throughout his career.”

That’s the future. What about the present? Over eight games, Ewers grades out at a 68.2 out of 100, according to Pro Football Focus. (For comparison’s sake, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart all grade out at better than 90.0.)

Ewers’ most visible and glaring flaw is his difficulty throwing downfield, and this is a case where the eye test matches up with the numbers. Over the entire season, Ewers has just seven “Big Time Throws” —defined by PFF as passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” Ward has 24 such throws; Sanders, 22.

Ewers’ Average Depth of Target — the distance downfield of his targeted receiver — is 6.7 yards. Among the 97 quarterbacks this year with a minimum of 250 dropbacks, Ewers ranks … 97th.

That inaccuracy was evident on Saturday against Arkansas, when Ewers failed to locate or connect with downfield receivers on multiple occasions … hence, the grumbling in the stands. Texas can get away with that kind of inaccuracy against the Razorbacks, and probably against Kentucky this week, too. But against Texas A&M in the regular-season finale? Against an SEC hoss in the conference championship? Against any member of the 12-team CFP field? That’s a dangerous gamble.

The backup quarterback might just be the most favorable occupation in Texas; you’re judged not on your performance but on the most optimistic view of your potential. Right at this moment, Arch Manning is a future two-time Hesiman winner who will win more Super Bowl trophies than his uncles put together. He also grades out at a 90.1 with exactly 100 dropbacks on the season.

Sarkisian and Ewers have both managed to keep a lid on the quarterback controversy talk by sidestepping any attempt to criticize or downplay Ewers’ role. When asked earlier this week if they had thoughts about this weekend potentially being Ewers’ home finale, both had quick responses.

“No idea,” Sarkisian said.

“Who knows?” Ewers said. “I’m just trying to win, trying to win this week.”

Both answers left a thread of uncertainty about Ewers and his future dangling — Ewers still has a year of eligibility remaining — and that was enough to set off another round of what-if fearmongering around social media. Would Ewers come back for another year? Would he be QB1 if he did? Would the most notable Texas player in a generation actually enter the transfer portal? (The answer to all three of these — or at least 1 and 3 — is almost surely “no.”)

So, much to consider as Texas wraps up its regular season. It’s tempting to say Ewers could silence all the criticism with victories, but he’s been winning all season and the gripes haven’t slowed. It might take a January trophy to make Texas fans happy, nothing less.

Good luck, Quinn Ewers. Over these next two-to-seven games, you’re going to need all of it.