Champions League draw verdict: Man City to beat Real Madrid and PSV to cause an upset

Manchester City will face Real Madrid in the play-offs for the knock-out phase of the Champions League.

Having beaten Club Brugge 3-1 in their final league-phase game to scrape through to the next round, Pep Guardiola’s side must go up against the 15-time European champions in the glamour tie of the play-off round.

City’s draw against Real means that Celtic will go up against Bayern Munich, now managed by former City captain Vincent Kompany.

The draw sets up the fifth two-legged tie between City and Real in the last six seasons. Last year Madrid ended City’s hopes of retaining the Champions League as they won in a penalty shoot-out at the Etihad in the quarter-finals.

The year before, City beat Real in the semi-finals on their way to completing the Treble, conquering Europe for the first time in the club’s history.

The winners of the tie will advance to face either Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16.

Juventus were drawn against PSV Eindhoven, Feyenoord were paired with AC Milan, while Club Brugge will face Atalanta.

There is an all-French tie between Brest and Paris St-Germain, Monaco will take on Benfica, and Sporting were drawn against Borussia Dortmund.

Here, Telegraph Sport predicts who will make it through to the round of 16...

Man City v Real Madrid

Pep Guardiola will have new signings in his squad and players back from injury – and revenge after getting knocked out on penalties last season. 
Winner: Manchester City

Celtic v Bayern

Vincent Kompany’s team are Bundesliga leaders and will have breathed a sigh of relief after avoiding City. Should have too much quality for Celtic. 
Winner: Bayern

Club Brugge v Atalanta

The Belgians showed in the first half against City that they should not be underestimated but Atalanta have demonstrated excellent form this season. 
Winner: Atalanta

Sporting CP v Borussia Dortmund

The Portuguese team have been through a manager already since Ruben Amorim’s departure – but Dortmund’s form is no better, and they too have dispensed with man in the dugout. Dortmund’s new-manager bounce to triumph. 
Winner: Borussia Dortmund

Brest v PSG

The surprise package of the group stage could not have asked for a worse draw, with PSG building up momentum in the competition by beating City. 
Winner: PSG

Monaco v Benfica

Third in the French league against second in the Portuguese – a fairly evenly matched tie that Benfica might edge. 
Winner: Benfica

PSV Eindhoven v Juventus

Possible “shock” here, given history of competition. PSV leading the Dutch league while Juve have struggled for consistency.
Winner: PSV

Feyenoord v AC Milan

The two clubs are negotiating over Santiago Gimenez – who would be a huge loss for the Dutch side. 
Winner: AC Milan

12:26 PM GMT

Brest disappointment

Of the other ties it’s an unfortunate state of affairs for Brest who, in their first ever foray in Champions League, have ended up escaping the endlessly PSG-dominated Ligue 1 by being drawn to play PSG – a team they have not beaten in 16 attempts.

Sporting against Borussia Dortmund promises to be an absorbing clash between two sides who have impressed in Europe in recent years.

But in truth the play-off glamour ties are in short supply as we have been denied Juventus v AC Milan, which would have been a classic. Just like the 2003 Champions League final which finished, erm, 0-0.

It does all set things up nicely for the round of 16 though.

Thanks for following. Until next time.

12:15 PM GMT

City’s tricky fixture schedule

With Man City still involved in the FA Cup, the two Madrid ties make their congested fixtures schedule even more gruelling.

Their Champions League play-off ties with Real Madrid come directly before home matches in the Premier League against Newcastle United and Liverpool.

Feb 2: Arsenal (a) Premier League
Feb 8: Leyton Orient (a) FA Cup fourth round
Feb 11/12: Real Madrid (h) Champions League play-off first-leg
Feb 15: Newcastle (h) Premier League
Feb 18/19: Real Madrid (a) Champions League play-off second-leg
Feb 23: Liverpool (h) Premier League
Feb 26: Tottenham (a) Premier League

12:05 PM GMT

How the last-16 might look

There is an all-French tie between Brest and Paris St Germain, Monaco will take on Benfica, and Sporting were drawn against Borussia Dortmund.

From Arsenal’s point of view there is the possibility of both Dutch sides, PSV or Feyenoord, or both Italian sides, AC Milan or Juventus, getting knocked out as they were kept apart in the draw.

Brest vs PSG (for the right to play Liverpool or Barcelona)
Monaco vs Benfica (for the right to play Liverpool or Barcelona)
Juventus vs PSV Eindhoven (for the right to play Arsenal or Inter Milan)
Feyenoord vs Milan (for the right to play Arsenal or Inter Milan)
Man City vs Real Madrid (for the right to play Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen)
Celtic vs Bayern (for the right to play Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen)
Club Brugge vs Atalanta (for the right to play Lille or Aston Villa)
Sporting CP vs Borussia Dortmund (for the right to play Lille or Aston Villa)

11:58 AM GMT

Man City v Real Madrid: Part V

The draw sets up the fifth two-legged tie between City and Madrid in the last six seasons. Last year Madrid ended City’s hopes of retaining the Champions League as they beat them in a penalty shoot-out at the Etihad in the quarter-finals.

The year before, City overcame Madrid in the semi-finals on their way to completing a treble, as they conquered Europe for the first time in the club’s history.

The winners of the tie will advance to face either Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen in the last 16.

11:29 AM GMT

And that concludes the draw

That was very short and sweet – the suits have called it a day.

But there’s no debate about the headline draw there.

City would have wanted to avoided the holders and 15-time winners Real Madrid but such are the pitfall of an abysmal first-round campaign.

Celtic fans won’t exactly be dancing in the streets of Glasgow but they would certainly have preferred the German champions to Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé et al.

The draw has also spared Vincent Kompany, Bayern’s manager, a reunion with his former side.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa will have to wait until the draw on 21 February to find out who they will play and which side of the bracket they will be drawn. Obviously, two of their four potential opponents will have been knockout by then.

11:24 AM GMT

Man City draw Real Madrid!

Man City v Real Madrid
Celtic v Bayern
Club Brugge v Atalanta
Sporting CP v Borussia Dortmund

11:23 AM GMT

Italian clubs kept apart for now

Brest v PSG
Monaco v Benfica
Juventus v PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord v Milan

11:18 AM GMT

Seeded teams to be drawn first

Unseeded teams will be drawn first and then the seeded teams will emerge second, each to be assigned to the blue or silver side of the bracket.

11:16 AM GMT

Thiago in the house

The special guest for today’s proceedings is the recently retired Thiago Alcantara, veteran of 80 Champions League appearances and a two-time Champions League winner, who says he has been impressed by the tactics employed by Atalanta and Monaco, and how they position their players on the field, with a special mention also for Leverkusen, Lille and Aston Villa. Pinto says he sounds like a coach already and you can easily imagine him coming to a Champions League dug-out soon.

11:09 AM GMT

Cue: the music

And then the camera pans around to a semi-empty conference hall in which a collection of ageing, ruddy-faced white men in suits seemingly wondering why they are there. It’s a slight comedown.

But that’s OK, folks, now please welcome on stage deputy secretary general of Uefa, Giorgio Marchetti... Giorgio Marchetti everyone...

10:59 AM GMT

Play-off draw breakdown

The draw gets under way in five minutes (give or take the standard, long-winded, besuited, bureaucratic guffery).

It will decide the fixtures for the play-offs only

The play-off fixtures will be decided over two legs

First legs: 11/12 February; Second legs: 18/19 February 2025

The draw for the round of 16 takes place on Friday 21 February

10:54 AM GMT

The permutations as they stand

The Premier League clubs already through know the four clubs they could face in the round of 16.

Monaco or Brest vs. Paris Saint-Germain or Benfica (for the right to play Liverpool or Barcelona)

Sporting Lisbon or Club Brugge vs. Atalanta or Borussia Dortmund (for the right to play Lille or Aston Villa)

Celtic or Manchester City vs. Real Madrid or Bayern Munich (for the right to play Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen)

Feyenoord or Juventus vs. AC Milan or PSV Eindhoven (for the right to play Arsenal or Inter Milan)

Brest or Monaco vs. Benfica or Paris Saint-Germain (for the right to play Barcelona or Liverpool)

Club Brugge or Sporting Lisbon vs. Borussia Dortmund or Atalanta (for the right to play Aston Villa or Lille)

Manchester City or Celtic vs. Bayern Munich or Real Madrid (for the right to play Bayer Leverkusen or Atletico Madrid)

Juventus or Feyenoord vs. PSV Eindhoven or AC Milan (for the right to play Inter Milan or Arsenal)

So, for example, if Monaco are drawn to face PSG

10:34 AM GMT

Top draw!

Good morning and welcome to our live coverage of the draw for the UEFA Champions League knockout round play-offs that are taking place at The House of European Football in Nyon.

Today’s draw, which gets under way at 11am, confirms the opponents of the 16 teams who made it through to the play-offs by virtue of finishing from ninth to 24th place in enormous 36-team group phase table. They include Manchester City and Celtic who already now they will face one of Real Madrid or Bayern Munich.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa meanwhile are sitting pretty in the round of 16 already, having been spared the extra two play-off fixtures by finishing in the top eight of the group phase table.

The draw will nonetheless be of interest to their fans, however, because it will place them on one side or other of the knockout bracket and offer a better indication of their possible opponents in the next stage and the latter rounds as they plot their course to the final in Munich on 31 May.

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